Tropical Meteorology Project continues to predict active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have reduced their forecast slightly but continue to call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are now warmer than normal. A warmer than normal tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is considered favorable for an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, since a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for developing storms.

The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has cool neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions, that is, the water temperatures are slightly below average. CSU researchers anticipate that these waters are likely to remain cooler than normal for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. Consequently, they believe that El Niño is extremely unlike this year.

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